This framework comprises 6 top-level categories (Quarantine Efficiency, Government Efficiency of Risk Management, Monitoring and Detection, Health Readiness, Regional Resilience and Emergency Preparedness). Each category consists of a matrix of sub-parameters (referred to here as Indicators), whereas each indicator itself consists of a matrix of 2-10 quantitative or qualitative sub-parameters, relating to the specific topic and composed from available databases. They relate to specific important factors impacting the stability of current regional circumstances, of the effectiveness of various regions’ emergency response efforts, and these variables will also address post-pandemic planning measures in future studies.

 

We are only just now emerging from a period of a spontaneous and widespread cessation or reduction of economic activity. Not all devastation wrought on the health and wealth of the global population are seen yet.  As behavioural scientists have advised governments worldwide, a population will tolerate a total lockdown for about three months before they come to regard a citizen’s responsibility to hygiene as a matter of public behaviour rather than public seclusion. This is evident in the extent to which even the later, looser lockdown regulations were flaunted in the latter stages of lockdown while public behavior remained more precautious than ever, with social distancing and mask wearing practiced almost ubiquitously even where voluntary. Furthermore, being housebound for months takes a mental, physical and financial toll on people of all age groups. 

 

As such, the peoples and economies of the world simply cannot abide another lockdown any time soon. And yet the health systems of the world cannot withstand a return to normal for as long as the risk of a future spike remains.

 

As with many historical predicaments, the best route out is technological innovation. 

 

Many nations are locked in a race to develop a coronavirus vaccine before the end of the year. Britain, Germany, the USA, Japan, Israel and China all claim some measure of success, while Russia is claiming to have already approved mass vaccinations for October, bringing things to an alleged state of completion so swiftly that competitors suspect them of cutting corners. International development institutions and inter-governmental bodies and public persons already have made speeches addressed to policymakers warning them to avoid “supply nationalism”. Discrepancies in political matters between nations were put aside in order to concentrate on more collaborative actions aimed to provide treatment and vaccination. The European Commission, which is one of the most active players at the forefront of fighting COVID-19 has committed to bring about cooperation in order to enable not only members of the EU but also the rest of the world, especially less developed countries, to have access to vaccination and supply of other necessary equipment. 

 

In any event, the main hindrance in the race for a vaccine for a novel pandemic is lack of data, which must be sampled from the wild as the crisis progresses and utilised as efficiently as possible in order that the crisis need not proceed a minute longer than is necessary. Much of this data is hard to come by. For example many statistically significant regions, such as the African islands, are hard to sample and the data is slow to arrive.

 

Metrics indicate that positive indicators of healthcare system efficiency do not necessarily correlate with a positive effect on mortality rates. On the contrary, the correlation is 0.1-0.3, which would mean that more health expenditures coincide with a higher ratio of fatal cases.